Trends from the London trusts about whether their medical / surgical and other specialty admissions have increased as the outbreak has developed
6 April 2020
There is a need to more accurately model the non-COVID capacity that needs to be retained in NHS hospitals in the BNSSG area. Planning bed and staff capacity to prepare for the anticipated surge of COVID-19 patients within the next few days is imperative.
To answer the question, we undertook a review of published studies, reports and data. We also reached out to all ARCs nationally, including those in London, for information that can help address the question.
We could not find any relevant published literature to answer the question. There are no published studies and reports, or data directly addressing this question. Data from Public Health England showed that total number of hospital admissions have decreased since middle of March, as well admissions for gastrointestinal, cardiac and respiratory diseases (with the exception of pneumonia).
Current overall bed occupancy in Scotland is probably between 60-70 per cent. Scottish NHS Trusts have seen a decline in emergency attendances and admissions that are non-COVID related although the trend is beginning to rise again.
Estimates from NIHR ARC Northwest London for London trusts suggest that if only maternity, elective cancer and emergency patients are occupying a bed, nearly 41 per cent of occupied acute inpatient beds could be freed up. For adult critical care beds, if only maternity, elective cancer and emergency patients were admitted, 36 per cent of critical care beds could be freed up.