Measuring demand in general practice

Project aims

This project reviewed the existing literature and to scan regional and national projects which aimed to measure and manage demand. It also sought to understand how GP practices currently measure and manage demand and how they use routinely collected data to predict demand and strengthen capacity planning.

It also aimed to gain an overview of the objectives of the three Prime Minister’s Challenge Fund sites in the region and to determine their approach to measuring and managing demand.

What we did

We did a systematic evidence scan of both published and grey literature on the topic of the demand measurement in general practice. We also conducted interviews with GP practices in the Prime Minister’s Challenge Fund sites.

How we involved people

We involved GP practice managers and GPs in the Prime Minister’s Challenge Fund sites.

What we found and what this means

The evidence scan highlighted a lack of research in this area and a lack of continuity in national projects aimed at supporting GP practices to understand demand. It provided strong evidence for the need for a study of this kind and for further investigation of this area.

Work with GP practices revealed no definitive or widespread approach to measuring demand in primary care. However, it confirmed that practices and clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) were struggling to cope with apparently increasing demand and were very keen to engage in further activities that might help understand and manage it better. It also highlighted possible approaches that could be used to measure demand via telephone and appointment systems.

The telephone systems had the most immediate potential in terms of being collectable and analysable. While few practices have the technological capability to collect and upload incoming call data, this is relatively easily changed through an upgrade or replacement of existing systems.

Appointments are recorded in many different ways and would need the adoption of a common approach to draw consistent conclusions from the data. However, using a combination of incoming call data and the date that an appointment was arranged (not the date of the appointment) could provide added value.

Analysis from interviews with the Prime Minister’s Challenge Fund sites points to the need for a concerted effort to work with practices, the complexities inherent in working with a large number of independent businesses and the challenges of making system wide change happen in a set timeframe.

The limitations of this study are largely around the small sample of practices selected and the limited number that were able to provide data from their phone systems.

A significant outcome from this study was the bringing together of individuals, practices, CCGs and Prime Minister’s Challenge Fund sites, leading to a strong willingness to collaborate to share learning and plan further work. It is important to build on this positivity through creating a community of practice in the region.

What next?

The next phase of this project is being developed with the community.